Update alerts

China unveils new subsidy scheme in bid to kickstart growth

16 May| China's State Council, the cabinet, announced a plan to subsidise purchases of energy-efficient home appliances and small engine cars on Wednesday in an attempt to boost consumption and prevent a further economic slowdown.

Negative foreign exchange growth points to hot money outflows in April

16 May| According to the People's Bank of China, the central bank, funds outstanding for foreign exchange, an indicator used to track monthly foreign exchange growth in mainland China, recorded a negative growth of Rmb60.571bn in April (see chart). We believe this is part of the reason for the central bank's recent RRR cut. If foreign exchange growth continues to be negative in May or only records small positive growth, it will provide the central bank with more incentive to make another RRR cut in near term to address the economic slowdown issue.

ICBC’s US deal marks latest step in global push

11 May| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) (1398:HKG), the world's largest bank by market value, is hoping that its acquisition of a local US lender will enable it to launch retail banking operations in the US as part of its ongoing strategy to beef up overseas operations in order to weather likely downturns at home.

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Latest issue

17 May 2012

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Macro View

Time to act

The Big Call

Copper financing loses its lustre

A boom in buying copper for use as collateral to back borrowing for credit-starved private businesses is set to unravel, creating a bearish outlook for copper prices

Consumer China

Department stores – shrinking growth, aggressive expansion

With consumer spending slowing and aggressive expansion heightening already stiff competition in many leading cities, 2012 promises to be a challenging year for leading department store chains.

Lifestyle International – upmarket retailer moving up the coast

The high-end Hong Kong department store group has achieved strong sales at its four mainland stores by tapping its knowledge of upmarket mainland shopping habits.

Wangfujing – long-term potential intact despite sluggish 1Q12

Despite posting its weakest quarterly results for five years, department store chain Wangfujing’s strong presence in promising inland regions and multi-store strategy should help to turn performance around.

New World – margin pressure persists despite rebranding efforts

Despite a rebound in sales due to rebranding efforts, margins and earnings remain lacklustre for China’s second-largest department store operator.

Intime – exploiting its home-field advantage

Dominance of its affluent home province of Zhejiang and targeted expansion elsewhere should support further strong top-line growth for department store operator Intime.

Financial China

LGFV default risks continue to moderate

Since late 2011, banks have been quietly rolling over maturing loans to local government financing vehicles (LGFV) in response to recognition from top-level policymakers in Beijing that mass defaults by LGFVs would cause severe shocks to economic growth and disrupt this year’s all-important leadership transition (CC Nov 3 2011, Financial China).

Selected financial charts

A selection of key financial data for May.

Capital Intensive China

Investment growth slows as developers shore up balance sheets

Property investment growth slowed to 18.7% YoY in the first four months of 2012, the first time that growth has fallen below 20% in the past three years. Furthermore, a National Bureau of Statistics index of real estate investment declined to 95.62 in April, the lowest level since May 2009. Meanwhile, sales data for April shows that leading developers are aggressively discounting properties to achieve quick sales in order to improve balance sheets and refinance debts that are due to mature.

Rural China

Rural wealth creation slows slightly in April

The China Confidential Rural Wealth Index (CCRWI), which measures key aspects of rural economic activity to ascertain the pace of wealth creation, declined slightly to 52.7 in April from 53.0 in March, dragged down by slower growth in migrant worker remittances as well as falling pork prices.

The "Me Generation" of migrant workers

Younger migrant workers spend more, are more brand conscious, want to live nearer home and dream of starting their own businesses, a CC grassroots survey finds.

The Best of Chinese Commentators

Yangzhou boosts property

On May 7, the government of Yangzhou, a municipality in Jiangsu province, announced that it will reward citizens who purchase fully furnished housing within a year from July 1 with 0.4% to 0.6% of the housing contract price according to the size of the house. The policy was the latest in a series of housing plans issued by local governments to help local real estate. Many such initiatives by local governments have subsequently been blocked by the central government, but Yangzhou has so far escaped sanction and an official at the Ministry of Housing said there will not be any action against the city.

Water quality scare

Around 50% of water in the public water systems across China is unsanitary, China’s media has disclosed, quoting an unpublished survey conducted by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MHURD) in 2009. Another official MHURD document, meanwhile, disclosed that only 83% of the urban water supply met sanitary standards in 2011. The issue follows health scares in recent years around milk contamination, filthy cooking oil used in restaurants and suspect drug capsules.

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